Bayes’ theorem is a bit too complicated to be thoroughly explained here, but fundamentally it is a calculation of the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. Let us apply Bayesian reasoning to Meghan Markle’s claim about some unnamed royal who allegedly expressed concern about the skin colour of Meghan and Harry’s unborn baby.
Based on our prior knowledge, such a comment might be very plausible. Meghan is constantly compared to Lady Di, and it would not come as a shock that Meghan is getting the same treatment the monarchy gave to Diana. Furthermore, some form of racism obviously still exists in the world, and some British royals might be very well complicit in it. After all, this is the same kingdom that brought slaves to America 400 years ago.
But then again, based on our prior knowledge, such a comment might not be very plausible. Piers Morgan certainly believes Meghan is lying, and Morgan is not some wacko or a rabid racist.
Meghan’s behaviour as a new member of the royalty has been disappointing— to put it mildly. She clearly wants to have all the perks, but none of the duties. This forced her way out. But, being in showbiz, she desperately needs to save face. In our times, screaming “racism!” is an effective way of doing so.
Just as Meghan is compared to Lady Di (thus increasing the probability that some royal did make the comment), she might also be compared to Jussie Smollett. You might recall that Smollett staged a racist attack – including putting a noose on his own neck— in order to invoke sympathies as a victim, and gain some fame. Meghan might be doing something similar. She is obviously disliked by a lot of people because of her astonishing narcissism. By portraying herself as the victim of an unpardonable crime in the 21st Century – racism – she can win the court of public opinion.
There are rumours swirling about her political ambitions and her connections with the Democratic party. Claiming to be a victim of racism comes in very handy. One well-known Democrat senator falsely claimed to be a descendant of oppressed Native Americans, hoping to score some points in her political career.
Racism exists. But so do hoaxes. If we make a Bayesian calculation based on prior knowledge, I posit that there is a 50 per cent probability that some royal did make the comment.
Furthermore, even if some royal did make the comment, would this be necessarily evidence of racism? I think not. It could have been a completely innocent observation about the genetics of skin colour. If in a family everyone is short, and a cousin marries someone taller, one might very innocently add that the coming baby will be taller than most members of the family. Or in Harry’s case, ask if it means that the baby won’t be pale and ginger.
Meghan and Harry claim that whoever made the comment, “expressed concern.” In that case, the comment would not be so innocent. But did the person express concern, or was it just Meghan and Harry’s interpretation of the comment?
So far, this is all sheer speculation. But, as it happens, one need not speculate. A formal investigation might determine who said it, and in what circumstances. Only then, can we truly assess the veracity of Meghan’s allegations.
Unfortunately, Meghan refuses to say who made the comment. This makes it suspicious. She just wants us to make a leap of faith and believe her with no evidence. In other words, she wants us to worship her as a goddess — a hallmark of narcissistic personality. When dealing with the divine, it is sacrilegious to ask for evidence, so we should kneel before the idol and accept her claims.
Most people are not worshipping Meghan as a goddess. She is no Athena. But she is trying hard to be a 21st Century Marie Antoinette, and she is largely succeeding.
Both in the United States and the United Kingdom, blue-collar workers are struggling. But Meghan cannot accept that concern for the plight of commoners is more important than her own little troubles.
Claiming victimhood status so shamelessly despite being an entitled celebrity is the new “let them eat cake.” For that very reason, I would not put my money on her allegations.